October 31, 2011 – 10:13 am
As an adult, Halloween tends not to be that scary for me usually.
But after last week’s stock market rally in the face of the deteriorating situation in Europe and the rest of the world, I am afraid…for the stock market and am reminded of fall/winter 1999.
October 28, 2011 – 3:10 pm
Total Annual Costs used to rate a fund’s expenses reflects the all-in cost of a minimum investment in each fund assuming a 3-yr holding period, the average holding period for mutual funds.
This rating reflects all expenses, loads, fees and transaction costs in a single value that is comparable across all funds.
Our goal is to give investors as accurate a measure as possible of the cost of investing in every fund to determine whether this cost of active management is worth paying.
By David Trainer
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Posted in Investing 101, Mutual Fund Research
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Tagged 12b1 Fees, Administrative Fees, Advisory Expense, back end load, expense ratio, front end load, portfolio turnover, predictive ETF rating, predictive mutual fund rating, redemption fee
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October 28, 2011 – 1:29 pm
The Fund Asset Allocation Rating informs investors of each fund’s level of allocation to cash (non-equities) as well as how that level compares to other equity mutual funds.
We assume investors in equity funds prefer those funds to be maximally invested in equities given that investors can much more cheaply invest in cash on their own. We do not believe that most investors want to pay the high fees associated with equity funds to invest in cash.
October 27, 2011 – 2:16 pm
Here is a free copy of our report on DeVry (DV) for Ask Matt readers. This report provides details behind Matt’s analysis of DV in his recent article in USA Today.
October 20, 2011 – 7:26 am
Mr. Bogle, an invaluable voice of reason for investors over many years, suggests that there is too much speculation in our equity markets.
His comments jibe entirely with my post, Rise of the Speculative Movement.
October 18, 2011 – 9:23 am
There are 25 financial sector ETFs. Per Figure 1, these 25 ETFs have drastically different stock holdings and, therefore, allocations. The lowest number of holdings is 24 while the highest is 496.
For starters, investors interested in the financial sector cannot expect many good investment options given that the sector gets my “dangerous” rating and ranks ninth out of the ten sectors that make up the economy. Details are in our sector roadmap report.
By David Trainer
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Posted in ETF Research, General Market Comments, Stock Picks and Pans
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Tagged BAC, Bank of America, C, Citigroup, Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares, FAS, FFL, Financial Select Sector SPDR, First Trust Financials AlphaDEX Fund, First Trust NASDAQ ABA Community Bank Index Fund, Focus Morningstar Financial Services Index ETF, FXO, IAI, IAK, IAT, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Broker-Dealers Index Fund, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Sector Index Fund, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index Fund, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index Fund, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Regional Banks Index Fund, iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index Fund, IYF, IYG, JP Morgan, JPM, KBE, KBWP, KCE, KIE, KME, KRE, KRU, PFI, PIC, PJB, PowerShares Dynamic Banking, PowerShares Dynamic Financial, PowerShares Dynamic Insurance, PowerShares KBW Property & Casualty Insurance Portfolio, ProShares Ultra Financials, ProShares Ultra KBW Regional Banking, QABA, REM, RevenueShares Financials Sector Fund, RWW, Rydex S&P Equal Weight Financial ETF, RYF, SPDR KBW Bank ETF, SPDR KBW Capital Markets ETF, SPDR KBW Insurance ETF, SPDR KBW Mortgage Finance ETF, SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF, UYG, Vanguard Financials ETF, VFH, XLF
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October 10, 2011 – 11:39 am
There are 36 “large cap value” ETFs. Per Figure 1, these 36 ETFs have drastically different stock holdings and, therefore, allocations. The lowest number of holdings is 30 while the highest is 1178.
How do investors pick the ETF that will deliver the best performance?
By David Trainer
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Posted in ETF Research
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Tagged AT&T, bottoms-up ETF analysis, Columbia Concentrated Large Cap Value Strategy Fund, DHS, DIA, DLN, Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, DTD, DTN, DVY, EPS, EQIN, EXT, Exxon MObil, EZY, FDL, FDV, First Trust Large Cap Value AlphaDEX Fund, First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund, First Trust Strategic Value Index Fund, First Trust Value Line Dividend Index Fund, FTA, FVD, GVT, HDV, iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund, iShares High Dividend Equity Fund, iShares Morningstar Large Value Index Fund, iShares NYSE 100 Index Fund, iShares Russell 1000 Value, iShares Russell Top 200 Value Index Fund, iShares S&P 500 Value Index Fund, IVE, IWD, IWX, JKF, JNJ, Johnson & Johnson, LWPE, MGV, NY, PFM, PowerShares Dividend Achievers, PowerShares Dynamic LargeCap Value, PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000 Portfolio, PowerShares RAFI Fundamental Pure Large Value Portfolio, predictive ETF ratings, PRF, PWV, PXLV, RPV, Russell Equity Income ETF, Russell Low P/E ETF, Rydex S&P 500 Pure Value ETF, SCHV, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF, SDY, SPDR S&P 500 Value ETF, SPDR S&P Dividend ETF, SPYV, T, Vanguard Div Appreciation ETF, Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF, Vanguard Mega Cap 300 Value, Vanguard Russell 1000 Value ETF, Vanguard S&P 500 Value ETF, Vanguard Value ETF, VIG, VONV, VOOV, VTV, VYM, WisdomTree Dividend ex-Financials Fund, WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund, WisdomTree High-Yielding Equity Fund, WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend Fund, WisdomTree Low P/E Fund, WisdomTree Total Dividend Fund, WisdomTree Total Earnings Fund, XOM
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October 7, 2011 – 10:36 am
Having too many choices can be intimidating. And there are definitely lots of choices when it comes to ETFs. For example, in the equity market alone, there 30+ technology sector ETFs, or 35 ‘large cap value’ and 20 financial ETFs. A very healthy selection abounds for every category of ETF.
The problem is that these ETFs are not made the same even though they may be in the same category. There are major differences in methodologies between funds, which results in drastically different holdings even within a given sector. See Figure 1.
By David Trainer
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Posted in ETF Research
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Tagged AAPL, acn, Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares, Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares, FDN, First Trust DJ Internet Index Fund, First Trust ISE Cloud Computing Index Fund, First Trust NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund, First Trust Technology AlphaDEX Fund, Focus Morningstar Technology Index ETF, FTQ, FXL, GOOG, IGM, IGN, IGV, iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index Fund, iShares Goldman Sachs Technology Index Fund, iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund, iShares S&P North American Technology-Multimedia Networking Index Fund, iShares S&P North American Technology-Software Index Fund, IYW, MSFT, MTK, New Constructs. predictive ratings for ETF, ORCL, PNQI, PowerShares Dynamic Networking, PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors, PowerShares Dynamic Software, PowerShares Dynamic Technology, PowerShares Nasdaq Internet Portfolio, ProShares Ultra Semiconductors, ProShares Ultra Technology, PSCT PowerShares S&P SmallCap Information Technology Portfolio, PSI, PSJ, PTF, PXQ, QTEC, RIMM, ROM, Rydex S&P Equal Weight Technology ETF, RYT, SKYY, SOXL, SOXX, SPDR MS Technology, SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF, Technology Select Sector SPDR, TYH, USD, Vanguard Information Tech ETF, vgt, xlk, XSD
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October 4, 2011 – 9:59 am
Similar to my prior interviews on SBUX, I found it easy to make the bear case for a stock that is as expensive as Starbucks (SBUX). As my regular readers know, when I say “expensive”, I back that up with details such as: to justify its $40 stock price (closing price from prior day), SBUX had to grow profits at 10% compounded annually for more than 25 years.
By David Trainer
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Posted in Stock Picks and Pans
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Tagged BAGL, Caribou Coffee, CBOU, Closing Bell, CNBC, Dangerous Rating, David Trainer, DNKN, Dunkin Donuts, Einstein Noah, future cash flow requirements, GMCR, Green Mountain Coffee, Howard Shultz, Neutral Rating, New Constructs, PEET, Peet's Coffee & Tea, starbucks, Stock Brawl
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October 4, 2011 – 8:40 am
In addition to my stock-brawl interview on Thursday (9/29/11), I have commented to the media on Starbucks (SBUX) many times. Below is a list (with links) to my past opinions/comments on SBUX.