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Danger Zone: Comcast (CMCSA)

The Time Warner deal is a smokescreen for the fact that Comcast faces many problems to which it does not have an answer. The market already understands that CMCSA has overpaid, which is why the stock is down 5% since the acquisition was announced. And the price will drop further as the market catches on to the larger competitive issues that Comcast faces.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Move, Inc (MOVE)

I don’t see any real upside for MOVE. The company is growing revenue, but extraordinary revenue growth is already baked into its price. Competitors like Zillow are already attracting more traffic, and the threat of entry by a larger company looms over the industry. MOVE is overpriced and falling behind in a competitive industry.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone 9/16/13: E*Trade Babies

Online trading firms aim to exploit the gullibility of many retail investors by encouraging the myth that they can outperform professional money managers armed with vastly greater resources, experience and expertise. The E*Trade babies are the most glaring symbol of this myth. The symbol also reinforces the notion that investing is an easy task that takes no special effort or aptitude to succeed.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
excess cash
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Excess Cash – Valuation Adjustment

For most companies, we estimate the required amount of cash for normal business operations to be around 5% of sales. However, many companies hold cash or other liquid investments above and beyond this amount. We refer to this extra amount as excess cash. This surplus cash can be used for any number of purposes, including acquisitions, research and development, and cushioning the company against economic downturns. Excess cash is immediately available for distribution to shareholders, so we add a company’s excess cash to our calculation of shareholder value.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Excess Cash – Invested Capital Adjustment

Most companies hold some cash—or cash equivalents in the form of investments—above this required amount. Companies hold excess cash in order to cushion against economic downturns, prepare for acquisitions, or any number of other reasons. Sometimes, past profits pile up on balance sheets and are a form of excess cash. Excess cash is not needed for the operations of a company. It is removed from our calculation of invested capital.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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The Truth Behind AAPL’s Numbers

This article provides some empirical evidence behind my putting Apple (AAPL) in the Danger Zone last week because its return on invested capital (ROIC) is outrageously high. That fact underscores why valuing this company or any other with the expectation that such a high ROIC was sustainable would be a mistake.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Picking The Diamonds Out of The ETF Rough

Having too many choices can be intimidating. And there are definitely lots of choices when it comes to ETFs. For example, in the equity market alone, there 30+ technology sector ETFs, or 35 ‘large cap value’ and 20 financial ETFs. A very healthy selection abounds for every category of ETF. The problem is that these ETFs are not made the same even though they may be in the same category. There are major differences in methodologies between funds, which results in drastically different holdings even within a given sector. See Figure 1.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO