October 6, 20160Comments

Why Suitors Are Leaving Twitter at the Altar – Danger Zone

Today’s news that Alphabet, Apple, and Disney are unlikely to bid for Twitter should come as no surprise. We think these companies (and many investors) are doing the same work we have done and simply cannot stomach paying anywhere close to Twitter’s current price.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

July 19, 20160Comments

Why Companies Overpay For Acquisitions

Overpriced acquisitions are far from a new phenomenon, but they’ve been especially prevalent in recent months. As a result, we’ve gathered some ideas about the various reasons companies ignore the evidence and continue to overpay for acquisitions.

by Sam McBride

June 13, 20160Comments

Microsoft Vastly Overpays For LinkedIn

Our models show that, even with the most optimistic forecasts, over $20 billion, or $2.60 per MSFT share, of the $26.2 billion purchase is an overpayment and a direct destruction of value for MSFT shareholders.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

April 19, 20161Comments

The Spell Is Broken: Netflix Is More Like A Traditional TV Network

Investors should not be surprised that Netflix lowered guidance for subscriber growth for Q2 after announcing that many long-time users will face price increases starting in May.

by Sam McBride

March 17, 20160Comments

#1 Ranked Stock Picker By SumZero

We are proud to announce that New Constructs has been ranked the #1 LTM Analyst per SumZero Rankings.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

March 7, 20160Comments

Danger Zone: Zillow Group (ZG)

This week’s Danger Zone pick, Zillow Group (ZG), sounds multiple alarms: unusually misleading non-GAAP earnings, overvalued stock, and broken business model.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

February 16, 20160Comments

Market Outlook For 2016

I think we are seeing the start of that process in late 2015 and early 2016. The combination of a slowdown in China, falling energy prices, and the end of zero interest rate policy from the Fed have put markets and the global economy in an interesting state of transition.

by Sam McBride

February 15, 20160Comments

“LinkedIn Is Still Significantly Overvalued” – Barron’s

This past weekend, Barron’s magazine featured our research for the second time in 2016 and 18th time since 2014. This time, Barron’s featured research from our Danger Zone report, and recent price update on LinkedIn (LNKD).

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

February 9, 20161Comments

LinkedIn: How Low Can It Go? $20/share

There is a lack of credible research on “just how low can LNKD go?” Our answer has not changed much since we put LinkedIn in the Danger Zone back in August 2013. We think the bottom for this stock is closer to $20/share

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

June 1, 20152Comments

No Hashtag Needed: Twitter’s Issues Worsen

Twitter went public in late 2013 touting excellent customer growth, equally impressive revenue growth, and the potential to be the “next big thing.” The stock has much farther to fall and earns a place in the Danger Zone this week.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

August 4, 20140Comments

The Long Overdue Crash in Whole Foods

Chasing highflying stocks might lead to short-term profits, but it carries the risk of long-term pain.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

May 23, 20140Comments

How To Avoid Wall Street Groupthink

Doing your own fundamental analysis can be hard work, but it is worth it. Listening to the buzz on Wall Street only tells you what has outperformed, doing your own research can tell you what will outperform.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

April 21, 20140Comments

Danger Zone 9/30/13: Zynga (ZNGA)

The stock has been beat up since its much-hyped IPO in 2011, but even after losing 61% of its value the stock is still too expensive. ZNGA is competing in an immature market where the barriers to entry are almost nonexistent and brand loyalty is a foreign concept.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

September 16, 20130Comments

Danger Zone 9/16/13: E*Trade Babies

Online trading firms aim to exploit the gullibility of many retail investors by encouraging the myth that they can outperform professional money managers armed with vastly greater resources, experience and expertise. The E*Trade babies are the most glaring symbol of this myth. The symbol also reinforces the notion that investing is an easy task that takes no special effort or aptitude to succeed.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

August 30, 20131Comments

Danger Zone 8/30/13: LinkedIn (LNKD)

LNKD continues our theme of hot stocks that have overshot their fair valuations. So far this year, LNKD is up 110% while the S&P 500 (SPY) is only up 15%. LNKD is a high-momentum stock in a popular sector, so investors are turning a blind eye to its competitive weaknesses and high valuation. Most people are aware that LNKD is expensive compared to its current earnings, but few people seem to aware of its off-balance sheet liabilities and the alarming level of profit growth implied by its stock price.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO