Reported earnings don’t tell the whole story of a company’s profits. They are frequently manipulated by companies to manage earnings.Read More
This article details the uniquely rigorous diligence behind each of our ratings on 3000 stocks, 7000 mutual funds and 400 ETFs. It contains reports on all the adjustments we make to convert GAAP data to economic earnings and derive true shareholder value in a discounted cash flow model.Read More
Without removing the tax impact of non-operating items, one still gets distorted picture of a company’s operating profitability.Read More
We remove all income and losses from discontinued operations in calculating operating profit because this income/loss will not recur in the future, and we are looking for the true profitability of the continuing and core operations of a company.Read More
Reported earnings don’t tell the whole story of a company’s profits. They are based on accounting rules designed for debt investors, not equity investors, and are manipulated by companies to manage earnings. Only economic earnings provide a complete and unadulterated measure of profitability.Read More
Non-operating items in operating income are unusual gains that don’t appear on the income statement because they are bundled in other line items. Without careful footnotes research, investors would never know that these non-recurring income items distort GAAP numbers by artificially raising operating earnings.Read More
Non-operating expenses are unusual charges that don’t appear on the income statement because they are bundled in other line items. Without careful footnotes research, investors would never know that these non-recurring expenses distort GAAP numbers by lowering operating earnings.Read More
Asset write-downs are unusual charges that don’t appear on the income statement because they are bundled in other line items. Without careful footnotes research, investors would never know that these non-recurring items distort operating earnings by overstating core-operating costs.Read More
This report summarizes our series of reports on how to convert GAAP data to economic earnings and derive true shareholder… Read more >>Read More
This article provides some empirical evidence behind my putting Apple (AAPL) in the Danger Zone last week because its return on invested capital (ROIC) is outrageously high. That fact underscores why valuing this company or any other with the expectation that such a high ROIC was sustainable would be a mistake.Read More
If you bought Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) last August when I recommended it to investors, or when I recommended it again in January, or any time between May 10, 2012 and now when the stock has had my Very Attractive rating, then today has been a good day for you.Read More
The difference between the stock price and Economic Book Value (EBV) of s stock measures the difference between the market’s expectation for future profits and the no-growth value of the stock.Read More
After S&P’s recent upgrade to its outlook on Delta Airlines [s: DAL], I cannot help but to wonder how they do their analysis.Read More
Our Company Valuation models are very sophisticated discounted cash flow and earnings quality models.
An enormous amount of works goes into every model. I wish I could offer a short-cut (beyond our ratings and reports) for understanding our models.
As discussed in “The Real Earnings Season Starts Now”, annual reports are the best source for developing investment ideas. I provided my clients with dozens of insights in 2011 that delivered impressive returns, and I continue that trend with my recommendation of MO.Read More
Most of my research and publishing tends to focus on companies manipulating accounting rules to make their reported earnings look better than the real economic cash flows of their business.
It is unfortunately rare that I find a company whose economic earnings are outpacing the reported accounting results and whose stock is cheap.
One such company is Lam Research (LRCX – very attractive rating). One of September’s most attractive stocks, LRCX offers investors hidden value.
Here is a free copy of our report on RIMM for readers of Ask Matt.
The valuation of RIMM’s stock implies the company’s after-tax cash flow (NOPAT) will permanently decline by nearly 75%.
The valuation of NUE’s stock implies the company will grow its after-tax cash flow (NOPAT) by nearly 20% compounded annually for 20 years.Read More
Yes, RIMM is losing market share and fast. Yes, RIMM’s Blackberry Playbook tablet is a dud. Yes, the stock has been a stinker recently. And yes, none of what I wrote at the beginning of this article would matter if the stock were not super cheap.Read More
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) gets our Dangerous Rating. This means CAT’s quality-of-earnings are not attractive and the stock’s valuation is very expensive. For example, the valuation of the current stock price ($112.16) implies the company will grow its profits at 16% compounded annually for 20 years. The takeaway: there are better stocks to choose from. See details in our free report.Read More