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Buy LRCX: More Value Than Meets the Eye

Most of my research and publishing tends to focus on companies manipulating accounting rules to make their reported earnings look better than the real economic cash flows of their business. It is unfortunately rare that I find a company whose economic earnings are outpacing the reported accounting results and whose stock is cheap. One such company is Lam Research (LRCX – very attractive rating). One of September’s most attractive stocks, LRCX offers investors hidden value.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
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Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Discover Financial Services (DFS)- Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that DFS’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $21.80) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 40% and never grow again. 2. Eco­nomic earn­ings are growing faster that reported accounting earnings. 3. Free cash flow of $2.8bn or 24% of its enterprise value during the last fiscal year.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
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Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Analog Devices Inc (ADI) – Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. About $15 million in non-operating expenses (after-tax) cause reported earnings to be understated. 2. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that ADI’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $37.18) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 10% and never grow again. 3. The com­pany grew its eco­nomic earn­ings by $283mm dur­ing its last fis­cal year. 4. Excess cash of $2,462.5mm or nearly 25% of its market cap
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
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Buy The Travelers Co (TRV) – Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. About $29 million in non-operating expenses (after-tax) cause reported earnings to be understated. 2. Our dis¬counted cash flow analy¬sis shows that TRV’s cur¬rent val¬u¬a¬tion (stock price of $55.49) implies that the company’s profits will decline by 30% and never grow again. 3. The company grew its economic earn¬ings by $827mm during its last fiscal year.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
1Comments

Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Colgate-Palmolive Co (CL) – Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. About $250 million in non-operating expenses (after-tax) cause reported earnings to be understated during the last fiscal year. 2. Our discounted cash flow analysis shows that CL’s current valuation (stock price of $77.52) implies that the company’s profits will decline by 7% and never grow again. 3. The company grew its economic earnings by $229mm (14% increase) during its last fiscal year.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
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Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY) – Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that BMY’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $27.16) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 35% and never grow again. 2. The com­pany grew its eco­nomic earn­ings by $307.5mm (12% increase) dur­ing its last fis­cal year. 3. The com­pany has $9,507mm in Excess Cash, which we remove from our Invested Cap­i­tal cal­cu­la­tion. $9,507mm mil­lion is more than 20% of BMY’s market cap.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
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Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Schiff Nutrition Intl (WNI) — Very Attractive Rating – Small Cap Special

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that WNI’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $7.89) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 25% and never grow again. 2. The com­pany grew its economic earnings more than its reported earnings. Economic earnings rose by $9.1mm (506% increase) while Net Income rose by only $8.1mm (79% increase) during its last fiscal year. 3. The com­pany has $42mm in Excess Cash, which we remove from our Invested Cap­i­tal cal­cu­la­tion. $42 mil­lion is 20% of WNI’s mar­ket cap.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
1Comments

Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Microsoft Corp (MSFT) — Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that MSFT’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $24.73) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 20% and never grow again. 2. The company has $43,292mm in Excess Cash (over 20% of the market cap), which we remove from our Invested Capital calculation and which helps drive a whopping 61.6% ROIC. 3. Our eco­nomic earn­ings mod­els shows prof­its are grow­ing, not declin­ing, which makes the Risk/Reward for MSFT Very Attractive.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO