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Sector Rankings For ETFs & Mutual Funds

Wednesday, July 9th, 2014 BW Final-3rd

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2014, only the Consumer Staples sector earns an Attractive-or-better rating.

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Carl Icahn May Be Fighting A Losing Battle With Family Dollar

Thursday, June 19th, 2014 12294184853_eb4c008c96_m

Icahn might be able to engineer a sale to DG or someone else that will earn himself and other shareholders a quick profit, but unlocking long-term value will be a much more difficult task.

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Sector Rankings For ETFs & Mutual Funds

Thursday, April 3rd, 2014 BW Final2

For the second quarter of 2014, only three sectors manage to even earn a Neutral rating. My sector ratings are based on the aggregation of my fund ratings for every ETF and mutual fund in each sector.

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Danger Zone: Tuesday Morning (TUES)

Monday, March 17th, 2014 8677384682_39150dddd8_m

Any brick and mortar retailer carries some risk in this environment, but investors who really want exposure to this sector should look for higher quality companies than TUES. Other retailers have superior profitability metrics, better branding and e-commerce capabilities, and a cheaper valuation. The only reason to touch TUES is to short it.

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No Progress From Amazon in 2013

Friday, February 7th, 2014 6736910191_f79ab3a810

Amazon (AMZN: $356/share) filed its annual Form 10-K last week. Our analysts have picked through the financial footnotes and fine print. 2013 results reinforce my bearish thesis from May of 2013 that AMZN’s valuation implies a more unrealistic level of growth and profitability than investors realize.

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Best & Worst ETFs & Mutual Funds: Consumer Staples Sector

Friday, January 17th, 2014 Screen shot 2014-01-17 at 2.20.20 PM

Check out my sector overview on Reuters Insider here.
The Consumer Staples sector ranks first out of the ten sectors… Read more >>

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How To Avoid the Worst Sector ETFs

Monday, November 4th, 2013 Screen shot 2013-11-01 at 3.46.59 PM

Picking from the multitude of sector ETFs is a daunting task. In any given sector there may be as many as 44 different ETFs, and there are at least 183 ETFs across all sectors.

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Sector Rankings For ETFs & Mutual Funds

Monday, October 7th, 2013 Screen shot 2013-10-03 at 4.17.54 PM

At the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2013, only the Consumer Staples sector earns an Attractive rating. My sector ratings are based on the aggregation of my fund ratings for every ETF and mutual fund in each sector.

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Danger Zone 8/19/13: Rite Aid (RAD)

Monday, August 19th, 2013 RAD_Figure1

RAD is up against the ropes right now. The company has to contend with larger, more efficient competitors, significant debt, and declining sales. Don’t be fooled by the 150% growth in the share price this year. RAD is much worse off than its stock suggests.

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How to Avoid the Worst Style ETFs

Monday, July 29th, 2013 htawsetfs2

Picking from the multitude of style ETFs is a daunting task. There are as many as 42 in any given style and at least 223 ETFs across all styles.

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Off-Balance Sheet Debt – Invested Capital Adjustment

Monday, July 8th, 2013 OBSD

Investors who ignore off-balance sheet debt are not holding companies accountable for all of the capital invested in their business. By adding back off-balance sheet debt to invested capital, one can get a true picture of the value that management is creating for shareholders. Diligence pays.

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Wal-Mart: Still Offering Great Value

Tuesday, June 4th, 2013 WMT_Fig1

Wal-Mart’s stock has done well since we first opened a position in June 2011, but it is still significantly undervalued.

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Danger Zone 5/20/2013: Amazon.com (AMZN)

Monday, May 20th, 2013 AMZNG

The belief that Internet retail is or will be more profitable than traditional retail is untrue. Amazon is in a competitive, low margin business that cannot justify the profit growth implied in its valuation.

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Danger Zone 4/22/2013: Sears Holdings (SHLD)

Monday, April 22nd, 2013 NOPAT_SHLD_Fig1

SHLD combines three themes that I have discussed in recent Danger Zone posts: overvaluation due to expectations of a construction rebound, hidden liabilities undermining a company’s financial strength, and online retailing making bricks-and-mortar stores obsolete.

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Sector Rankings For ETFs & Mutual Funds

Thursday, April 11th, 2013 SRT7

At the outset of the second quarter of 2013, only a single sector earns an Attractive rating. My sector ratings are based on the aggregation of my fund ratings for every ETF and mutual fund in each sector.

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Best & Worst ETFs and Mutual Funds: Large-cap Blend Style

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012 LargeCapBlend1

The large-cap blend style ranks second out of the twelve fund styles as detailed in my style roadmap. It gets my Neutral rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 40 ETFs and 1127 mutual funds in the large-cap blend style as of July 17, 2012.

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Definition: Price-To-EBV, or Price to Economic Book Value ratio

Monday, June 18th, 2012 PEBV_chart

The difference between the stock price and Economic Book Value (EBV) of s stock measures the difference between the market’s expectation for future profits and the no-growth value of the stock.

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See How Diligence Paid In 2011

Monday, April 30th, 2012 dreamstimefree_6271799_handHoldingLightBulb

Everyone wants diligence. Few will ever turn it down. The problem is that diligence is expensive. New Constructs makes diligence cost-effective.

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Roadmap to the Best & Worst Sectors for Funds 2Q12

Tuesday, April 17th, 2012 SectorRoadmapFig1

Only one sector, Consumer Staples, earns my Attractive rating. See Figure 1 for my ranking of all ten sectors. My sector ratings are based on the aggregation of my fund ratings for every ETF and mutual fund in each each sector.

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footnoted.org vs New Constructs = Hype vs Substance

Thursday, March 1st, 2012 footnoted.org vs New Constructs = Hype vs Substance

When I ran across the recent article “270,033 pages later, a chance to catch our breath…”, I could not help but admire footnoted.org’s marketing moxy.
The article provides a count of the number of pages of 10-K filings that have poured in during the real earnings season. It also highlight a couple of the largest filings. At first glance, it is easy for one to assume that all of the 270,033 pages were also analyzed.

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